Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.97 - $121.92$114.26
Multi-Stage$19.29 - $21.09$20.17
Blended Fair Value$67.22
Current Price$6.45
Upside942.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.70%18.60%0.500.641.280.300.140.330.310.410.010.21
YoY Growth---23.15%-49.66%329.19%113.39%-57.17%5.34%-24.87%4,355.92%-95.66%136.98%
Dividend Yield--6.82%7.58%9.66%2.51%1.64%10.07%5.75%7.84%0.35%11.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9826.8616.12
Cash Retained (M)50.2650.2650.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.98-26.86-16.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.2823.4034.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)350.51350.51350.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.070.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.070.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.97$114.26$121.92
Upside / Downside845.23%1,671.44%1,790.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.89228.85243.73259.57276.44294.41303.24
Payout Ratio76.61%79.29%81.97%84.64%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.62181.45199.77219.71241.40264.97280.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.02170.62172.22
Year 2 PV (M)173.33176.63179.97
Year 3 PV (M)177.57182.67187.86
Year 4 PV (M)181.72188.71195.90
Year 5 PV (M)185.80194.78204.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,873.726,157.426,451.98
Equity Value (M)6,761.167,070.837,392.03
Shares Outstanding (M)350.51350.51350.51
Fair Value$19.29$20.17$21.09
Upside / Downside199.06%212.76%226.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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