Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Discover Financial Services (DFS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.77 - $465.24$349.22
Multi-Stage$239.67 - $262.03$250.64
Blended Fair Value$299.93
Current Price$170.70
Upside75.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.12%5.14%3.072.992.802.532.292.282.202.102.052.05
YoY Growth--2.53%6.97%10.53%10.42%0.52%3.80%4.74%2.53%-0.19%10.28%
Dividend Yield--1.80%2.31%2.83%2.30%2.41%6.39%2.99%2.92%2.99%4.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,795.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)771.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,024.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)959.00599.38359.63
Cash Retained (M)4,024.004,024.004,024.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-959.00-599.38-359.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,065.003,424.633,664.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)251.25251.25251.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.2013.6314.58
LTM Dividend per Share3.073.073.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.2013.6314.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.2716.7017.65
WACC / Discount Rate10.14%10.14%10.14%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$263.77$349.22$465.24
Upside / Downside54.52%104.58%172.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,795.005,040.305,298.155,569.195,854.106,153.586,338.19
Payout Ratio16.08%30.86%45.65%60.43%75.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)771.001,555.612,418.483,365.564,403.215,538.235,862.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.14%10.14%10.14%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,398.931,412.361,425.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,955.831,993.582,031.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,447.602,518.812,591.38
Year 4 PV (M)2,879.712,991.943,107.43
Year 5 PV (M)3,257.193,416.653,582.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,277.4050,640.8253,095.90
Equity Value (M)60,216.6662,974.1665,834.49
Shares Outstanding (M)251.25251.25251.25
Fair Value$239.67$250.64$262.03
Upside / Downside40.40%46.83%53.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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