Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Organización Cultiba, S.A.B. de C.V. (CULTIBAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.49 - $5.74$5.16
Multi-Stage$13.98 - $15.70$14.82
Blended Fair Value$9.99
Current Price$10.30
Upside-3.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.51%7.22%0.500.000.001.840.041.470.000.300.280.28
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%5,084.46%-97.58%0.00%-100.00%7.41%0.00%12.50%
Dividend Yield--4.51%0.00%0.00%21.39%0.26%11.39%0.00%1.88%1.50%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,401.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)345.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,055.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)280.26175.16105.10
Cash Retained (M)1,055.581,055.581,055.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-280.26-175.16-105.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)775.33880.42950.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)696.68696.68696.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.261.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.261.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-21.51%-20.51%-19.51%
Fair Value$4.49$5.16$5.74
Upside / Downside-56.38%-49.90%-44.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,401.281,113.93885.51703.93559.59444.84458.18
Payout Ratio24.67%37.74%50.80%63.87%76.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)345.69420.35449.86449.59430.51400.36423.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-21.51%-20.51%-19.51%
Year 1 PV (M)389.35394.31399.27
Year 2 PV (M)385.94395.84405.86
Year 3 PV (M)357.26371.09385.27
Year 4 PV (M)316.87333.33350.42
Year 5 PV (M)272.94290.77309.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,014.598,538.289,089.00
Equity Value (M)9,736.9510,323.6210,939.35
Shares Outstanding (M)696.68696.68696.68
Fair Value$13.98$14.82$15.70
Upside / Downside35.69%43.87%52.45%

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