Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (CRC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.14 - $17.39$14.02
Multi-Stage$26.70 - $29.40$28.02
Blended Fair Value$21.02
Current Price$21.90
Upside-4.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-31.93%0.00%0.550.480.300.402.043.790.390.350.300.00
YoY Growth--14.58%60.00%-25.00%-80.21%-46.30%875.84%10.00%17.37%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.37%0.68%1.01%5.46%13.54%0.92%0.84%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,957.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,618.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,339.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,391.55869.72521.83
Cash Retained (M)3,339.233,339.233,339.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,391.55-869.72-521.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,947.682,469.512,817.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,987.295,987.295,987.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.14$14.02$17.39
Upside / Downside-49.14%-35.98%-20.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,957.766,888.186,819.306,751.116,683.606,616.766,815.26
Payout Ratio52.01%59.61%67.20%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,618.534,105.744,582.865,050.025,507.385,955.086,304.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,827.713,866.773,905.83
Year 2 PV (M)3,983.194,064.904,147.43
Year 3 PV (M)4,092.004,218.554,347.68
Year 4 PV (M)4,160.404,332.834,510.56
Year 5 PV (M)4,193.974,412.364,639.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)139,609.19146,878.96154,448.47
Equity Value (M)159,866.47167,774.37175,999.73
Shares Outstanding (M)5,987.295,987.295,987.29
Fair Value$26.70$28.02$29.40
Upside / Downside21.92%27.95%34.23%

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