Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Castellum AB (publ) (CAST.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.84 - $67.35$56.19
Multi-Stage$214.73 - $237.88$226.07
Blended Fair Value$141.13
Current Price$106.30
Upside32.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.77%-6.63%0.711.984.143.833.613.392.942.771.631.53
YoY Growth---63.93%-52.28%8.00%6.31%6.54%15.12%6.00%69.90%6.63%8.18%
Dividend Yield--0.64%1.43%4.09%1.96%2.23%2.40%1.92%2.42%1.64%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,038.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)654.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,384.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)607.60379.75227.85
Cash Retained (M)2,384.002,384.002,384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-607.60-379.75-227.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,776.402,004.252,156.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)492.32492.32492.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.614.074.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.614.074.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.945.405.71
WACC / Discount Rate4.75%4.75%4.75%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Fair Value$45.84$56.19$67.35
Upside / Downside-56.87%-47.14%-36.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,038.002,903.412,774.792,651.872,534.392,422.112,494.78
Payout Ratio21.53%35.22%48.92%62.61%76.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)654.001,022.641,357.331,660.361,933.882,179.902,307.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.75%4.75%4.75%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)966.01976.23986.44
Year 2 PV (M)1,211.181,236.931,262.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,399.541,444.411,490.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,539.831,606.001,674.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,639.621,728.161,820.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,960.41104,304.37109,876.73
Equity Value (M)105,716.60111,296.10117,111.12
Shares Outstanding (M)492.32492.32492.32
Fair Value$214.73$226.07$237.88
Upside / Downside102.01%112.67%123.78%

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