Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.61 - $3.81 | $3.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $3.81 - $4.18 | $3.99 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3.59 | |
| Current Price | $9.46 | |
| Upside | -62.07% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -29.23% | -10.63% | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 96.57% | 16.97% | -1.58% | -75.02% | -68.59% | -16.85% | 15.66% | -16.70% | 82.88% | 24.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.77% | 0.47% | 0.59% | 0.71% | 2.59% | 15.80% | 8.67% | 4.79% | 6.80% | 4.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 165.79 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 39.06 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 126.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 33.16 | 20.72 | 12.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 126.73 | 126.73 | 126.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -33.16 | -20.72 | -12.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 93.57 | 106.01 | 114.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.48 | 483.48 | 483.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.55% | 9.55% | 9.55% |
| Growth Rate | -0.87% | 0.13% | 1.13% |
| Fair Value | $2.61 | $3.19 | $3.81 |
| Upside / Downside | -72.42% | -66.29% | -59.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 165.79 | 166.01 | 166.22 | 166.43 | 166.64 | 166.85 | 171.86 |
| Payout Ratio | 23.56% | 36.85% | 50.14% | 63.42% | 76.71% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 39.06 | 61.17 | 83.34 | 105.56 | 127.83 | 150.17 | 158.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.55% | 9.55% | 9.55% |
| Growth Rate | -0.87% | 0.13% | 1.13% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 55.28 | 55.84 | 56.40 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 68.06 | 69.44 | 70.83 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 77.91 | 80.29 | 82.72 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 85.26 | 88.76 | 92.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 90.52 | 95.17 | 100.02 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,462.96 | 1,538.25 | 1,616.62 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,839.98 | 1,927.75 | 2,018.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.48 | 483.48 | 483.48 |
| Fair Value | $3.81 | $3.99 | $4.18 |
| Upside / Downside | -59.77% | -57.85% | -55.86% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTBT | Bit Digital, Inc. | 0.25% | $0.01 | 1.17% |
| PVH | PVH Corp. | 0.25% | $0.17 | 2.41% |
| AEL | American Equity Investment Life Holding Company | 0.24% | $0.14 | 2.19% |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corporation | 0.24% | $0.80 | 9.74% |
| L | Loews Corporation | 0.24% | $0.25 | 3.58% |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | 0.23% | $0.30 | 5.83% |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | 0.23% | $0.48 | 17.39% |
| FOCS | Focus Financial Partners Inc. | 0.22% | $0.12 | 19.23% |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.18 | 2.50% |
| RMAX | RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 0.22% | $0.40 | 30.98% |
| 0J5I.L | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 0.21% | $0.60 | 8.71% |
| PRVAX | Virginia Tax Free Bond Fund | 0.21% | $0.02 | 89.04% |
| ACA | Arcosa, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.20 | 6.66% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 0.19% | $0.40 | 11.24% |
| USLM | United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.23 | 5.04% |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.40 | 10.65% |
| BELFA | Bel Fuse Inc. | 0.18% | $0.28 | 5.31% |
| TILE | Interface, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.05 | 2.63% |
| 0K05.L | Medifast, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 78.63% |
| AYI | Acuity Brands, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.65 | 5.19% |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | 0.17% | $0.20 | 3.53% |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.17% | $1.70 | 7.18% |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.66 | 3.24% |
| STCN | Steel Connect, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 1.98% |
| VVI | Viad Corp | 0.17% | $0.07 | 0.54% |
| ALNT | Allient Inc. | 0.16% | $0.09 | 7.91% |
| CLSK | CleanSpark, Inc. | 0.16% | $0.02 | 1.41% |
| EME | EMCOR Group, Inc. | 0.16% | $1.01 | 4.01% |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | 0.16% | $0.32 | 2.76% |
| CW | Curtiss-Wright Corporation | 0.15% | $0.87 | 7.08% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 0.15% | $0.46 | 6.11% |
| SPCMU | Sound Point Acquisition Corp I, Ltd | 0.15% | $0.02 | 1.33% |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.24 | 4.34% |
| JBL | Jabil Inc. | 0.14% | $0.33 | 5.48% |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.00 | 1.99% |
| 0R0A.L | Hecla Mining Company | 0.13% | $0.02 | 5.24% |
| GNW | Genworth Financial, Inc. | 0.13% | $0.01 | 2.27% |
| ONIT | Onity Group Inc. | 0.13% | $0.06 | 1.46% |
| 0A7O.L | MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.12% | $0.19 | 0.73% |
| 0KGS.L | Pegasystems Inc. | 0.12% | $0.07 | 4.63% |
| PRTAX | T. Rowe Price Tax-Free Income Fd | 0.12% | $0.01 | 89.04% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | 0.12% | $0.22 | 3.25% |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | 0.11% | $0.75 | 12.15% |
| MPLF.L | Marble Point Loan Financing Limited | 0.11% | $0.07 | 92.98% |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | 0.10% | $0.04 | 2.34% |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners, Inc. | 0.10% | $0.07 | 0.85% |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 5.89% |
| RAL | Ralliant Corp. | 0.10% | $0.05 | 2.75% |
| TXT | Textron Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 1.79% |