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Definitive Analysis

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Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$913.26 - $3,302.17$2,894.82
Multi-Stage$430.08 - $469.89$449.62
Blended Fair Value$1,672.22
Current Price$349.10
Upside379.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.56%22.85%11.467.459.073.752.242.022.001.981.951.28
YoY Growth--53.87%-17.89%142.13%66.95%11.32%0.95%0.64%1.62%52.48%-12.55%
Dividend Yield--3.75%3.25%3.73%1.55%0.83%2.43%2.48%2.25%2.90%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,620.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,848.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)772.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)524.00327.50196.50
Cash Retained (M)772.00772.00772.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-524.00-327.50-196.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.00444.50575.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.79157.79157.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.572.823.65
LTM Dividend per Share11.7111.7111.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.572.823.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.2814.5315.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$913.26$2,894.82$3,302.17
Upside / Downside161.60%729.23%845.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,620.002,790.302,971.673,164.833,370.543,589.633,697.32
Payout Ratio70.53%74.43%78.32%82.21%86.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,848.002,076.752,327.432,601.922,902.273,230.663,420.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,922.041,940.261,958.48
Year 2 PV (M)1,993.582,031.562,069.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,062.682,121.892,182.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,129.382,211.272,295.50
Year 5 PV (M)2,193.752,299.712,409.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,561.5860,341.8363,228.48
Equity Value (M)67,863.0270,946.5274,144.30
Shares Outstanding (M)157.79157.79157.79
Fair Value$430.08$449.62$469.89
Upside / Downside23.20%28.80%34.60%

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