DDM Analysis: ASPO.HE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.75 - $9.00	$7.25
Multi-Stage	$9.24 - $10.16	$9.69
Blended Fair Value	$8.47
Current Price	$5.98
Upside	41.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.34%	1.66%	0.22	0.43	0.42	0.32	0.20	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	-48.08%	2.40%	28.95%	59.41%	-49.88%	3.06%	3.37%	2.50%	2.80%	91.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.33%	7.10%	4.88%	4.57%	2.29%	7.01%	4.44%	3.82%	4.19%	4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	16.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.96	2.48	1.49
Cash Retained (M)	16.95	16.95	16.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.96	-2.48	-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	12.99	14.48	15.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	33.79	33.79	33.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.43	0.46
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.43	0.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.47	0.51	0.54
WACC / Discount Rate	7.78%	7.78%	7.78%
Growth Rate	-0.34%	0.66%	1.66%
Fair Value	$5.75	$7.25	$9.00
Upside / Downside	-3.78%	21.22%	50.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.80	19.93	20.06	20.19	20.33	20.46	21.07
Payout Ratio	14.38%	29.50%	44.63%	59.75%	74.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.85	5.88	8.95	12.07	15.22	18.41	19.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.78%	7.78%	7.78%
Growth Rate	-0.34%	0.66%	1.66%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.40	5.46	5.51
Year 2 PV (M)	7.56	7.71	7.86
Year 3 PV (M)	9.35	9.64	9.93
Year 4 PV (M)	10.84	11.28	11.73
Year 5 PV (M)	12.05	12.66	13.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	266.96	280.63	294.85
Equity Value (M)	312.16	327.37	343.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	33.79	33.79	33.79
Fair Value	$9.24	$9.69	$10.16
Upside / Downside	54.48%	62.01%	69.83%

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Aspo Oyj (ASPO.HE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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