DDM Analysis: ALKEY.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.36 - $2.01	$1.67
Multi-Stage	$2.44 - $2.69	$2.56
Blended Fair Value	$2.12
Current Price	$7.80
Upside	-72.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.03	0.20	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-86.66%	2,744.14%	-70.79%	49.61%	-13.61%	188.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.40%	4.34%	0.21%	0.84%	0.57%	0.41%	0.11%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.53	0.33	0.20
Cash Retained (M)	2.25	2.25	2.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.53	-0.33	-0.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.71	1.92	2.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.62	15.62	15.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.36	$1.67	$2.01
Upside / Downside	-82.58%	-78.58%	-74.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2.67	2.65	2.62	2.59	2.57	2.54	2.62
Payout Ratio	15.83%	30.66%	45.50%	60.33%	75.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.42	0.81	1.19	1.56	1.93	2.29	2.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	0.74	0.75	0.76
Year 2 PV (M)	1.00	1.02	1.04
Year 3 PV (M)	1.21	1.25	1.28
Year 4 PV (M)	1.37	1.42	1.48
Year 5 PV (M)	1.49	1.57	1.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	32.35	34.03	35.78
Equity Value (M)	38.16	40.04	42.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.62	15.62	15.62
Fair Value	$2.44	$2.56	$2.69
Upside / Downside	-68.67%	-67.13%	-65.52%

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Keyrus S.A. (ALKEY.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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