Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Exacompta Clairefontaine S.A. (ALEXA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,886.78 - $7,535.42$7,061.79
Multi-Stage$1,172.45 - $1,283.50$1,226.95
Blended Fair Value$4,144.37
Current Price$154.00
Upside2,591.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.93%11.79%6.704.403.683.003.002.7010.058.607.765.72
YoY Growth--52.26%19.57%22.69%-0.03%11.13%-73.13%16.89%10.85%35.56%160.27%
Dividend Yield--4.82%2.51%3.09%3.17%3.16%2.35%10.05%7.10%6.57%8.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.575.363.22
Cash Retained (M)26.8126.8126.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.57-5.36-3.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.2321.4523.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.131.131.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1118.9520.85
LTM Dividend per Share14.2014.2014.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1118.9520.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.3133.1535.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,886.78$7,061.79$7,535.42
Upside / Downside2,423.88%4,485.58%4,793.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8745.6648.6351.7955.1558.7460.50
Payout Ratio37.48%47.98%58.49%68.99%79.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0721.9128.4435.7343.8452.8655.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)20.4120.6020.80
Year 2 PV (M)24.6925.1625.63
Year 3 PV (M)28.9029.7330.57
Year 4 PV (M)33.0434.3135.62
Year 5 PV (M)37.1138.9140.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,182.451,239.561,298.86
Equity Value (M)1,326.601,388.271,452.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1.131.131.13
Fair Value$1,172.45$1,226.95$1,283.50
Upside / Downside661.33%696.72%733.44%

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