Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AKVA group ASA (AKVA.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.03 - $162.30$111.80
Multi-Stage$128.13 - $140.85$134.37
Blended Fair Value$123.08
Current Price$82.00
Upside50.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.001.000.910.961.601.220.890.530.71
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%10.37%-5.72%-39.88%31.13%37.38%66.56%-24.71%-0.38%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%1.70%1.11%1.05%3.41%1.81%1.35%0.80%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2721.4212.85
Cash Retained (M)135.05135.05135.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.27-21.42-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.78113.63122.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.774.134.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$80.03$111.80$162.30
Upside / Downside-2.40%36.34%97.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.36175.32179.38183.53187.77192.11197.87
Payout Ratio21.19%34.95%48.71%62.48%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3161.2887.38114.66143.15172.90183.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)57.2057.7658.32
Year 2 PV (M)76.1377.6479.16
Year 3 PV (M)93.2496.0298.87
Year 4 PV (M)108.65113.00117.49
Year 5 PV (M)122.49128.65135.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,196.184,407.404,627.04
Equity Value (M)4,653.874,880.485,115.94
Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
Fair Value$128.13$134.37$140.85
Upside / Downside56.26%63.86%71.77%

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