Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD (AHL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.27 - $75.08$62.06
Multi-Stage$67.83 - $74.48$71.09
Blended Fair Value$66.57
Current Price$36.71
Upside81.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%14.51%2.570.530.530.000.000.000.560.740.690.67
YoY Growth--383.87%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-23.67%6.64%3.54%1.19%
Dividend Yield--7.90%1.63%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.74%2.28%2.13%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)453.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.7856.7434.04
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.78-56.74-34.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)332.12366.16388.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$50.27$62.06$75.08
Upside / Downside36.94%69.05%104.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)453.90458.45463.05467.70472.39477.13491.44
Payout Ratio6.83%23.46%40.10%56.73%73.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.00107.57185.67265.33346.57429.41454.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)97.2598.2399.20
Year 2 PV (M)151.77154.82157.90
Year 3 PV (M)196.08202.02208.08
Year 4 PV (M)231.56240.96250.64
Year 5 PV (M)259.39272.62286.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,216.474,431.554,655.31
Equity Value (M)5,152.525,400.205,657.53
Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
Fair Value$67.83$71.09$74.48
Upside / Downside84.77%93.65%102.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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