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Taiwan Shin Kong Security Co., Ltd. (9925.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.43 - $42.61$33.72
Multi-Stage$52.08 - $57.15$54.56
Blended Fair Value$44.14
Current Price$40.85
Upside8.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.20%1.26%2.022.022.022.021.902.002.002.002.001.90
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%6.32%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.26%6.61%
Dividend Yield--4.88%4.90%4.95%5.05%4.97%5.88%5.26%5.19%5.03%4.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)952.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)775.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)190.53119.0871.45
Cash Retained (M)177.17177.17177.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-190.53-119.08-71.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.3558.09105.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
LTM Dividend per Share2.022.022.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Fair Value$26.43$33.72$42.61
Upside / Downside-35.31%-17.46%4.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)952.63955.83959.04962.26965.49968.73997.79
Payout Ratio81.40%83.12%84.84%86.56%88.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)775.46794.50813.66832.94852.34871.86922.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)736.59744.01751.42
Year 2 PV (M)699.38713.53727.82
Year 3 PV (M)663.77684.02704.68
Year 4 PV (M)629.73655.47682.00
Year 5 PV (M)597.21627.88659.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,698.7117,556.3218,448.81
Equity Value (M)20,025.3920,981.2321,974.53
Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
Fair Value$52.08$54.56$57.15
Upside / Downside27.48%33.57%39.89%

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