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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Secom Co., Ltd. (9917.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.97 - $431.25$241.53
Multi-Stage$165.88 - $181.51$173.55
Blended Fair Value$207.54
Current Price$111.50
Upside86.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.39%4.19%5.285.085.085.084.064.064.053.554.064.06
YoY Growth--4.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%0.00%0.16%14.10%-12.50%0.00%16.00%
Dividend Yield--4.33%4.13%4.81%4.66%4.35%4.96%4.66%3.93%4.51%4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,924.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,346.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)578.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)584.89365.56219.33
Cash Retained (M)578.23578.23578.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-584.89-365.56-219.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.67212.67358.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)444.50444.50444.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.480.81
LTM Dividend per Share5.285.285.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.480.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.265.766.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.30%4.30%5.30%
Fair Value$155.97$241.53$431.25
Upside / Downside39.88%116.62%286.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,924.453,050.203,181.363,318.163,460.833,609.653,717.94
Payout Ratio80.23%82.18%84.14%86.09%88.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,346.232,506.732,676.692,856.643,047.113,248.683,439.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.30%4.30%5.30%
Year 1 PV (M)2,324.922,347.432,369.94
Year 2 PV (M)2,302.512,347.312,392.53
Year 3 PV (M)2,279.092,345.922,414.04
Year 4 PV (M)2,254.742,343.322,434.49
Year 5 PV (M)2,229.552,339.572,453.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,341.2865,417.7668,614.51
Equity Value (M)73,732.0877,141.3080,679.41
Shares Outstanding (M)444.50444.50444.50
Fair Value$165.88$173.55$181.51
Upside / Downside48.77%55.65%62.79%

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