Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Migao Group Holdings Limited (9879.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.79 - $6.83$5.79
Multi-Stage$7.28 - $8.01$7.64
Blended Fair Value$6.71
Current Price$5.16
Upside30.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)559.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)504.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)111.9969.9942.00
Cash Retained (M)504.51504.51504.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-111.99-69.99-42.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)392.52434.51462.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)795.99795.99795.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.79$5.79$6.83
Upside / Downside-7.24%12.23%32.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)559.95554.35548.81543.32537.89532.51548.48
Payout Ratio9.90%25.92%41.94%57.96%73.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.45143.70230.18314.91397.93479.26507.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)129.88131.20132.53
Year 2 PV (M)188.03191.89195.78
Year 3 PV (M)232.51239.70247.04
Year 4 PV (M)265.55276.56287.90
Year 5 PV (M)289.06304.12319.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,691.174,935.455,189.80
Equity Value (M)5,796.206,078.916,372.84
Shares Outstanding (M)795.99795.99795.99
Fair Value$7.28$7.64$8.01
Upside / Downside41.12%48.00%55.16%

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