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Definitive Analysis

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Fulgent Sun International (Holding) Co., Ltd. (9802.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.60 - $711.11$328.76
Multi-Stage$193.30 - $211.67$202.32
Blended Fair Value$265.54
Current Price$99.90
Upside165.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.10%14.78%4.706.763.883.484.762.912.962.261.311.62
YoY Growth---30.44%74.33%11.32%-26.79%63.74%-1.90%31.24%71.96%-18.83%36.55%
Dividend Yield--3.93%5.53%2.94%2.86%4.21%3.56%4.61%3.43%2.03%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,436.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)951.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)484.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)287.29179.56107.73
Cash Retained (M)484.81484.81484.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-287.29-179.56-107.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.52305.25377.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.47202.47202.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.511.86
LTM Dividend per Share4.704.704.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.511.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.54%4.54%5.54%
Fair Value$197.60$328.76$711.11
Upside / Downside97.80%229.08%611.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,436.461,501.621,569.741,640.951,715.391,793.201,847.00
Payout Ratio66.25%71.00%75.75%80.50%85.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)951.651,066.151,189.081,320.961,462.371,613.881,708.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.54%4.54%5.54%
Year 1 PV (M)991.411,000.981,010.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,028.201,048.161,068.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,062.161,093.241,124.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,093.431,136.291,180.40
Year 5 PV (M)1,122.131,177.371,234.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,840.0635,506.1537,237.22
Equity Value (M)39,137.3940,962.1942,856.17
Shares Outstanding (M)202.47202.47202.47
Fair Value$193.30$202.32$211.67
Upside / Downside93.50%102.52%111.88%

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