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Heiwa Real Estate REIT, Inc. (8966.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,095,437.09 - $2,535,443.11$2,376,081.51
Multi-Stage$381,871.97 - $417,625.76$399,421.75
Blended Fair Value$1,387,751.63
Current Price$127,700.00
Upside986.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.65%10.06%6,552.385,975.235,352.254,672.154,372.144,134.333,771.323,376.102,959.542,694.30
YoY Growth--9.66%11.64%14.56%6.86%5.75%9.63%11.71%14.08%9.84%7.28%
Dividend Yield--5.59%4.41%3.32%3.10%3.74%2.96%3.24%3.61%3.77%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,944.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,302.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,642.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,988.971,868.111,120.86
Cash Retained (M)5,642.375,642.375,642.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,988.97-1,868.11-1,120.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,653.403,774.264,521.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.171.171.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,263.523,219.693,857.14
LTM Dividend per Share7,935.627,935.627,935.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,263.523,219.693,857.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,199.1411,155.3111,792.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,095,437.09$2,376,081.51$2,535,443.11
Upside / Downside757.82%1,760.67%1,885.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,944.8515,916.2716,950.8218,052.6319,226.0520,475.7421,090.01
Payout Ratio62.25%67.80%73.35%78.90%84.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,302.4810,790.6412,432.9614,243.1916,236.2218,428.1719,508.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,038.5910,133.7510,228.90
Year 2 PV (M)10,760.3310,965.2911,172.18
Year 3 PV (M)11,467.9011,797.1112,132.55
Year 4 PV (M)12,161.5012,629.2013,110.26
Year 5 PV (M)12,841.3313,461.5714,105.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)390,377.37409,232.74428,809.76
Equity Value (M)447,647.04468,219.66489,559.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1.171.171.17
Fair Value$381,871.97$399,421.75$417,625.76
Upside / Downside199.04%212.78%227.04%

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