Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad (8869.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.49 - $10.34$6.56
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.54$3.39
Blended Fair Value$4.97
Current Price$5.18
Upside-3.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.20%19.50%0.070.070.060.040.020.030.030.030.020.01
YoY Growth--0.00%17.05%57.45%138.46%-37.99%-16.67%12.78%67.17%15.42%20.12%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.49%1.23%0.61%0.32%1.56%1.37%1.27%1.23%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,792.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)597.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,195.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.58224.11134.47
Cash Retained (M)1,195.551,195.551,195.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.58-224.11-134.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)836.96971.431,061.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,239.628,239.628,239.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.49$6.56$10.34
Upside / Downside-13.38%26.57%99.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,792.921,909.462,033.572,165.762,306.532,456.452,530.15
Payout Ratio33.32%44.65%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)597.37852.661,138.621,458.151,814.402,210.812,340.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)770.72778.03785.33
Year 2 PV (M)930.29948.01965.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,076.871,107.781,139.28
Year 4 PV (M)1,211.201,257.781,305.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,334.001,398.431,465.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,419.9422,454.5323,528.72
Equity Value (M)26,743.0227,944.5629,190.25
Shares Outstanding (M)8,239.628,239.628,239.62
Fair Value$3.25$3.39$3.54
Upside / Downside-37.34%-34.53%-31.61%

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