Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kohsoku Corporation (7504.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,486.97 - $7,465.86$4,966.90
Multi-Stage$2,526.75 - $2,760.44$2,641.48
Blended Fair Value$3,804.19
Current Price$2,701.00
Upside40.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.33%8.98%54.8746.8644.7842.7535.7829.3528.4127.3927.6923.11
YoY Growth--17.10%4.63%4.76%19.48%21.90%3.33%3.71%-1.07%19.80%-0.44%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.89%2.18%2.80%2.43%2.00%2.48%2.03%2.59%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,561.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)526.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,035.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)712.38445.23267.14
Cash Retained (M)3,035.463,035.463,035.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-712.38-445.23-267.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,323.092,590.232,768.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.3919.3919.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share119.83133.61142.80
LTM Dividend per Share27.1527.1527.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share119.83133.61142.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend146.99160.76169.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,486.97$4,966.90$7,465.86
Upside / Downside29.10%83.89%176.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,561.883,793.404,039.974,302.574,582.234,880.085,026.48
Payout Ratio14.78%29.82%44.87%59.91%74.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)526.421,131.321,812.632,577.743,434.654,392.074,649.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,019.301,028.971,038.63
Year 2 PV (M)1,471.461,499.491,527.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,885.371,939.491,994.64
Year 4 PV (M)2,263.392,350.432,439.96
Year 5 PV (M)2,607.742,733.702,864.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,737.1741,656.4943,649.26
Equity Value (M)48,984.4351,208.5653,514.74
Shares Outstanding (M)19.3919.3919.39
Fair Value$2,526.75$2,641.48$2,760.44
Upside / Downside-6.45%-2.20%2.20%

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