Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASIRO Inc. (7378.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$744.27 - $1,044.49$893.51
Multi-Stage$1,069.93 - $1,174.13$1,121.03
Blended Fair Value$1,007.27
Current Price$1,734.00
Upside-41.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%13.4413.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)869.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)693.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.91108.6965.21
Cash Retained (M)693.79693.79693.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.91-108.69-65.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)519.88585.10628.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.297.297.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share71.2780.2186.17
LTM Dividend per Share24.0924.0924.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share71.2780.2186.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend95.36104.30110.26
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$744.27$893.51$1,044.49
Upside / Downside-57.08%-48.47%-39.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)869.53860.83852.22843.70835.26826.91851.72
Payout Ratio20.21%34.17%48.13%62.08%76.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.74294.13410.14523.81635.15744.22787.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)263.36266.05268.74
Year 2 PV (M)328.81335.56342.37
Year 3 PV (M)376.00387.63399.50
Year 4 PV (M)408.23425.15442.59
Year 5 PV (M)428.29450.59473.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,000.126,312.566,637.88
Equity Value (M)7,804.828,177.548,564.89
Shares Outstanding (M)7.297.297.29
Fair Value$1,069.93$1,121.03$1,174.13
Upside / Downside-38.30%-35.35%-32.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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