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Definitive Analysis

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DENSO Corporation (6902.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,494.85 - $28,104.42$26,337.95
Multi-Stage$4,118.12 - $4,505.97$4,308.49
Blended Fair Value$15,323.22
Current Price$1,950.50
Upside685.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.72%7.98%63.1551.0946.4640.5437.9637.9636.8634.2333.2434.28
YoY Growth--23.59%9.98%14.60%6.80%0.00%2.98%7.68%2.99%-3.04%17.02%
Dividend Yield--3.24%2.02%1.93%2.25%2.00%3.61%3.18%2.53%2.80%3.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403,890.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)183,308.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)220,582.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80,778.0050,486.2530,291.75
Cash Retained (M)220,582.00220,582.00220,582.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-80,778.00-50,486.25-30,291.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)139,804.00170,095.75190,290.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,858.042,858.042,858.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.9259.5166.58
LTM Dividend per Share64.1464.1464.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.9259.5166.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend113.05123.65130.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11,494.85$26,337.95$28,104.42
Upside / Downside489.33%1,250.32%1,340.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403,890.00430,142.85458,102.14487,878.77519,590.89553,364.30569,965.23
Payout Ratio45.39%54.31%63.23%72.15%81.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)183,308.00233,604.13289,664.28352,025.27421,269.36498,027.87527,217.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)217,210.30219,269.17221,328.04
Year 2 PV (M)250,434.85255,204.93260,020.01
Year 3 PV (M)282,991.62291,115.29299,392.96
Year 4 PV (M)314,890.47327,000.26339,456.03
Year 5 PV (M)346,141.12362,859.87380,218.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,358,095.9810,858,395.8911,377,843.45
Equity Value (M)11,769,764.3312,313,845.4112,878,258.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,858.042,858.042,858.04
Fair Value$4,118.12$4,308.49$4,505.97
Upside / Downside111.13%120.89%131.02%

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