Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leaguer (Shenzhen) Microelectronics Corp. (688589.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.99 - $32.12$17.30
Multi-Stage$7.67 - $8.36$8.01
Blended Fair Value$12.65
Current Price$26.98
Upside-53.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS92.12%0.00%0.280.190.150.120.000.010.060.060.110.00
YoY Growth--44.88%25.24%33.33%2,373.17%-56.26%-81.84%4.62%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.89%0.53%0.36%0.02%0.02%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.277.054.23
Cash Retained (M)19.0019.0019.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.27-7.05-4.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.7311.9614.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)129.21129.21129.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.99$17.30$32.12
Upside / Downside-59.27%-35.89%19.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.3760.0363.9368.0972.5177.2379.55
Payout Ratio66.29%71.03%75.77%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.3742.6448.4554.8261.8269.5173.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.8139.1739.54
Year 2 PV (M)40.1240.8941.66
Year 3 PV (M)41.3242.5143.72
Year 4 PV (M)42.4144.0445.72
Year 5 PV (M)43.3945.4947.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)785.12823.04862.41
Equity Value (M)991.171,035.141,080.71
Shares Outstanding (M)129.21129.21129.21
Fair Value$7.67$8.01$8.36
Upside / Downside-71.57%-70.31%-69.00%

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