Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Huate Gas Co., Ltd (688268.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.07 - $178.83$74.08
Multi-Stage$26.20 - $28.68$27.42
Blended Fair Value$50.75
Current Price$65.00
Upside-21.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.49%0.00%0.600.460.410.320.250.180.170.080.060.08
YoY Growth--30.04%13.43%27.40%29.96%37.91%3.06%109.76%41.09%-27.02%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.96%0.43%0.49%0.43%0.36%0.33%0.00%0.11%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2221.3912.83
Cash Retained (M)158.66158.66158.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.22-21.39-12.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.44137.28145.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.07120.07120.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.141.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.141.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.07$74.08$178.83
Upside / Downside-33.74%13.98%175.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.09182.21194.05206.66220.10234.40241.43
Payout Ratio7.26%23.81%40.36%56.90%73.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.4243.3878.31117.60161.67210.96223.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6840.0640.44
Year 2 PV (M)65.5366.7868.04
Year 3 PV (M)90.0292.6095.23
Year 4 PV (M)113.20117.55122.03
Year 5 PV (M)135.12141.65148.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,702.832,833.382,968.92
Equity Value (M)3,146.383,292.023,443.08
Shares Outstanding (M)120.07120.07120.07
Fair Value$26.20$27.42$28.68
Upside / Downside-59.68%-57.82%-55.88%

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