Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Catalyst Holding Co., Ltd. (688267.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.06 - $203.21$190.44
Multi-Stage$27.96 - $30.60$29.26
Blended Fair Value$109.85
Current Price$28.78
Upside281.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201620152014
DPS39.09%48.76%0.200.260.270.220.060.040.010.000.000.01
YoY Growth---23.73%-3.89%27.15%235.00%66.70%449.85%0.00%0.00%-100.00%47.56%
Dividend Yield--0.76%1.26%0.86%0.58%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.1821.9913.19
Cash Retained (M)114.58114.58114.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.18-21.99-13.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.3992.59101.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.17172.17172.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.06$190.44$203.21
Upside / Downside143.43%561.71%606.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.92187.36199.54212.51226.32241.03248.26
Payout Ratio34.87%45.90%56.92%67.95%78.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.3585.99113.58144.39178.73216.93229.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)79.8180.5781.32
Year 2 PV (M)97.8499.71101.59
Year 3 PV (M)115.45118.76122.14
Year 4 PV (M)132.63137.74142.98
Year 5 PV (M)149.41156.63164.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,239.274,444.034,656.62
Equity Value (M)4,814.425,037.435,268.78
Shares Outstanding (M)172.17172.17172.17
Fair Value$27.96$29.26$30.60
Upside / Downside-2.84%1.66%6.33%

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