Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools Co.,Ltd (688059.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.72 - $367.39$130.22
Multi-Stage$43.90 - $47.99$45.91
Blended Fair Value$88.06
Current Price$75.90
Upside16.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS37.33%0.00%0.800.760.730.610.060.160.270.160.000.00
YoY Growth--5.44%4.20%18.35%888.20%-61.99%-39.91%65.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%1.64%0.95%1.05%0.11%0.37%0.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.4720.9212.55
Cash Retained (M)118.41118.41118.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.47-20.92-12.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.9497.49105.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.4674.4674.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.72$130.22$367.39
Upside / Downside-4.19%71.57%384.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.35178.23189.81202.15215.29229.28236.16
Payout Ratio29.25%41.40%53.55%65.70%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.9473.78101.64132.81167.60206.35218.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.6068.2568.89
Year 2 PV (M)85.3486.9688.60
Year 3 PV (M)102.18105.11108.10
Year 4 PV (M)118.15122.70127.37
Year 5 PV (M)133.30139.74146.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,762.462,895.893,034.42
Equity Value (M)3,269.033,418.643,573.81
Shares Outstanding (M)74.4674.4674.46
Fair Value$43.90$45.91$47.99
Upside / Downside-42.16%-39.51%-36.77%

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