Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688019.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.65 - $45.33$38.35
Multi-Stage$48.72 - $53.59$51.11
Blended Fair Value$44.73
Current Price$228.44
Upside-80.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.210.110.100.120.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--14.51%96.94%6.54%-18.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.25%0.11%0.11%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)749.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.8893.6756.20
Cash Retained (M)687.63687.63687.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.88-93.67-56.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)537.75593.95631.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.60163.60163.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.293.633.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.293.633.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.664.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.65$38.35$45.33
Upside / Downside-86.15%-83.21%-80.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)749.40741.90734.48727.14719.87712.67734.05
Payout Ratio8.24%24.59%40.95%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.77182.46300.74416.63530.17641.40679.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)165.18166.87168.55
Year 2 PV (M)246.47251.52256.63
Year 3 PV (M)309.10318.66328.41
Year 4 PV (M)356.08370.84386.05
Year 5 PV (M)389.99410.29431.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,504.476,843.177,195.84
Equity Value (M)7,971.288,361.358,766.92
Shares Outstanding (M)163.60163.60163.60
Fair Value$48.72$51.11$53.59
Upside / Downside-78.67%-77.63%-76.54%

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