DDM Analysis: 688009.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.03 - $4.69	$3.80
Multi-Stage	$6.99 - $7.69	$7.34
Blended Fair Value	$5.57
Current Price	$5.38
Upside	3.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.77%	0.00%	0.23	0.19	0.17	0.21	0.20	0.22	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.31
YoY Growth	-	-	18.69%	13.71%	-19.49%	5.58%	-9.41%	35.29%	96.60%	-6.80%	-71.47%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.10%	3.45%	3.15%	4.77%	3.55%	3.53%	1.34%	0.68%	0.73%	2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,420.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,883.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,536.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	684.05	427.53	256.52
Cash Retained (M)	1,536.38	1,536.38	1,536.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-684.05	-427.53	-256.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	852.34	1,108.85	1,279.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,535.67	10,535.67	10,535.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.28	0.30
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.03	$3.80	$4.69
Upside / Downside	-43.67%	-29.34%	-12.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,420.24	3,386.04	3,352.18	3,318.66	3,285.47	3,252.61	3,350.19
Payout Ratio	55.08%	62.06%	69.05%	76.03%	83.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,883.86	2,101.50	2,314.60	2,523.24	2,727.46	2,927.35	3,098.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,955.19	1,975.14	1,995.09
Year 2 PV (M)	2,003.52	2,044.62	2,086.14
Year 3 PV (M)	2,032.05	2,094.89	2,159.02
Year 4 PV (M)	2,043.60	2,128.29	2,215.60
Year 5 PV (M)	2,040.66	2,146.92	2,257.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	63,581.99	66,892.85	70,340.22
Equity Value (M)	73,657.00	77,282.71	81,053.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,535.67	10,535.67	10,535.67
Fair Value	$6.99	$7.34	$7.69
Upside / Downside	29.95%	36.34%	43.00%

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited (688009.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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