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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Piston Ring Co., Ltd. (6461.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,824.92 - $4,516.68$3,591.91
Multi-Stage$5,739.02 - $6,317.81$6,022.76
Blended Fair Value$4,807.33
Current Price$1,574.00
Upside205.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.85%8.62%71.3440.6556.8968.40104.9668.4062.7762.7752.2952.16
YoY Growth--75.47%-28.54%-16.82%-34.84%53.46%8.96%0.00%20.05%0.25%67.21%
Dividend Yield--4.53%3.20%4.42%5.66%7.41%3.01%2.80%4.58%2.27%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,130.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)535.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,595.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)426.00266.25159.75
Cash Retained (M)1,595.001,595.001,595.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-426.00-266.25-159.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,169.001,328.751,435.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.827.827.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share149.45169.87183.49
LTM Dividend per Share68.4068.4068.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share149.45169.87183.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend217.84238.27251.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$2,824.92$3,591.91$4,516.68
Upside / Downside79.47%128.20%186.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,130.002,128.092,126.172,124.262,122.352,120.452,184.06
Payout Ratio25.12%38.09%51.07%64.05%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)535.00810.671,085.851,360.521,634.711,908.402,020.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)753.31760.92768.54
Year 2 PV (M)937.62956.67975.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,091.671,125.121,159.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,218.861,268.901,320.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,322.241,390.451,461.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,567.4341,608.4543,732.85
Equity Value (M)44,891.1247,110.5249,418.46
Shares Outstanding (M)7.827.827.82
Fair Value$5,739.02$6,022.76$6,317.81
Upside / Downside264.61%282.64%301.39%

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