Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nikkiso Co., Ltd. (6376.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,250.34 - $20,332.48$19,050.49
Multi-Stage$11,145.06 - $12,256.49$11,690.16
Blended Fair Value$15,370.33
Current Price$1,283.00
Upside1,098.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%4.88%29.9424.9424.1721.4721.4721.4717.1717.1618.2418.61
YoY Growth--20.07%3.18%12.57%0.00%0.00%25.02%0.09%-5.95%-1.94%0.08%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.95%2.57%2.34%1.91%2.66%1.28%1.55%1.43%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,933.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,987.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,946.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,386.60866.63519.98
Cash Retained (M)4,946.004,946.004,946.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,386.60-866.63-519.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,559.404,079.384,426.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.3266.3266.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.6761.5166.73
LTM Dividend per Share29.9629.9629.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.6761.5166.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.6391.4796.69
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$17,250.34$19,050.49$20,332.48
Upside / Downside1,244.53%1,384.84%1,484.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,933.007,220.077,519.027,830.358,154.588,492.228,746.99
Payout Ratio28.66%40.93%53.20%65.46%77.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,987.002,955.033,999.825,126.066,338.727,643.008,090.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)2,883.052,911.002,938.95
Year 2 PV (M)3,807.333,881.523,956.42
Year 3 PV (M)4,760.524,900.335,042.86
Year 4 PV (M)5,743.305,969.306,201.90
Year 5 PV (M)6,756.387,090.337,437.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)715,238.06750,589.92787,326.02
Equity Value (M)739,188.63775,342.39812,903.49
Shares Outstanding (M)66.3266.3266.32
Fair Value$11,145.06$11,690.16$12,256.49
Upside / Downside768.67%811.16%855.30%

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