Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Juheshun Advanced Material Co., Ltd. (605166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.03 - $121.39$113.76
Multi-Stage$24.20 - $26.53$25.34
Blended Fair Value$69.55
Current Price$11.66
Upside496.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS75.43%0.00%0.290.210.200.090.050.020.070.100.020.01
YoY Growth--39.66%6.91%110.81%84.03%186.80%-74.18%-30.67%535.71%18.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.25%1.98%1.71%0.71%0.49%0.17%0.68%0.00%0.15%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2625.7815.47
Cash Retained (M)154.28154.28154.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.26-25.78-15.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.03128.50138.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)337.95337.95337.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.03$113.76$121.39
Upside / Downside783.64%875.64%941.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.28219.69233.96249.17265.37282.62291.10
Payout Ratio25.21%38.17%51.12%64.08%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.9983.84119.61159.68204.44254.36269.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)78.6579.4080.14
Year 2 PV (M)105.26107.26109.28
Year 3 PV (M)131.81135.59139.45
Year 4 PV (M)158.31164.40170.66
Year 5 PV (M)184.77193.69202.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,521.207,884.488,261.66
Equity Value (M)8,180.008,564.828,964.15
Shares Outstanding (M)337.95337.95337.95
Fair Value$24.20$25.34$26.53
Upside / Downside107.59%117.36%127.49%

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