DDM Analysis: 605086.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.03 - $16.31	$12.07
Multi-Stage	$8.24 - $9.00	$8.61
Blended Fair Value	$10.34
Current Price	$25.40
Upside	-59.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	74.77%	0.00%	0.45	0.24	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.04	0.35	0.02	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	90.73%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-92.43%	-31.17%	-88.58%	1,577.21%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.67%	1.37%	1.51%	0.00%	0.02%	0.21%	0.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	111.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	74.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22.33	13.96	8.37
Cash Retained (M)	74.20	74.20	74.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22.33	-13.96	-8.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	51.87	60.24	65.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	179.20	179.20	179.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.21	0.21	0.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.55	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.24%	5.24%	6.24%
Fair Value	$9.03	$12.07	$16.31
Upside / Downside	-64.45%	-52.49%	-35.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	111.65	117.51	123.67	130.16	136.98	144.17	148.49
Payout Ratio	33.54%	44.84%	56.13%	67.42%	78.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37.45	52.68	69.41	87.75	107.82	129.75	137.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.24%	5.24%	6.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	47.44	47.90	48.35
Year 2 PV (M)	56.28	57.36	58.46
Year 3 PV (M)	64.07	65.93	67.82
Year 4 PV (M)	70.88	73.64	76.48
Year 5 PV (M)	76.81	80.56	84.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,161.59	1,218.39	1,277.38
Equity Value (M)	1,477.07	1,543.78	1,612.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	179.20	179.20	179.20
Fair Value	$8.24	$8.61	$9.00
Upside / Downside	-67.55%	-66.08%	-64.56%

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Longyan Kaolin Clay Co., Ltd. (605086.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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