Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.,Ltd (603876.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.51 - $86.61$81.17
Multi-Stage$44.55 - $48.87$46.67
Blended Fair Value$63.92
Current Price$11.58
Upside451.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.35%12.26%0.490.710.360.270.370.290.230.260.130.15
YoY Growth---30.54%96.65%30.93%-24.96%27.58%27.40%-14.64%108.77%-13.54%-5.43%
Dividend Yield--5.44%7.08%1.59%1.35%5.78%3.93%1.97%2.43%1.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)383.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.6647.9128.75
Cash Retained (M)135.35135.35135.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.66-47.91-28.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.6987.44106.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)880.08880.08880.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.51$81.17$86.61
Upside / Downside534.84%600.94%647.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)383.29408.20434.73462.99493.08525.13540.89
Payout Ratio64.69%69.75%74.81%79.87%84.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.93284.72325.23369.81418.81472.62500.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.09273.66276.23
Year 2 PV (M)294.84300.46306.13
Year 3 PV (M)319.21328.37337.71
Year 4 PV (M)344.20357.44371.05
Year 5 PV (M)369.83387.69406.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,608.1539,424.6341,310.64
Equity Value (M)39,207.3241,072.2643,008.00
Shares Outstanding (M)880.08880.08880.08
Fair Value$44.55$46.67$48.87
Upside / Downside284.71%303.01%322.00%

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