Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Vland Biotech Inc. (603739.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.60 - $68.05$24.67
Multi-Stage$7.34 - $8.01$7.67
Blended Fair Value$16.17
Current Price$13.69
Upside18.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.29%0.61%0.230.160.220.150.130.130.260.250.220.11
YoY Growth--38.88%-24.63%39.64%16.08%5.23%-50.39%2.97%12.29%94.41%-46.63%
Dividend Yield--1.78%1.45%1.48%0.89%0.81%0.79%1.10%2.37%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7110.456.27
Cash Retained (M)35.8035.8035.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.71-10.45-6.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.0825.3529.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.21244.21244.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.60$24.67$68.05
Upside / Downside-7.98%80.21%397.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.5789.0094.79100.95107.51114.50117.93
Payout Ratio57.16%63.73%70.30%76.87%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.7756.7266.6377.5989.70103.05109.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.1352.6253.12
Year 2 PV (M)56.2857.3558.43
Year 3 PV (M)60.2261.9563.71
Year 4 PV (M)63.9866.4468.97
Year 5 PV (M)67.5570.8174.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,492.031,564.091,638.92
Equity Value (M)1,792.181,873.261,957.34
Shares Outstanding (M)244.21244.21244.21
Fair Value$7.34$7.67$8.01
Upside / Downside-46.39%-43.97%-41.45%

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