Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

FULONGMA Group Co.,Ltd. (603686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $15.96$10.19
Multi-Stage$5.23 - $5.70$5.46
Blended Fair Value$7.82
Current Price$21.86
Upside-64.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.06%15.25%0.300.280.280.400.220.190.190.150.110.11
YoY Growth--4.55%0.43%-29.78%85.60%12.75%-1.15%27.16%33.19%2.86%55.58%
Dividend Yield--1.97%3.15%2.85%3.61%1.17%1.39%1.81%0.89%0.46%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.6717.9210.75
Cash Retained (M)60.6160.6160.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.67-17.92-10.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9442.6949.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.39418.39418.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.99$10.19$15.96
Upside / Downside-68.01%-53.41%-26.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.33152.64162.57173.13184.39196.37202.26
Payout Ratio57.71%64.17%70.63%77.09%83.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.7297.95114.82133.46154.04176.73187.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)88.5189.3590.19
Year 2 PV (M)93.7495.5397.33
Year 3 PV (M)98.45101.28104.16
Year 4 PV (M)102.67106.62110.68
Year 5 PV (M)106.44111.58116.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,698.431,780.461,865.64
Equity Value (M)2,188.242,284.822,384.91
Shares Outstanding (M)418.39418.39418.39
Fair Value$5.23$5.46$5.70
Upside / Downside-76.07%-75.02%-73.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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