Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Smith Adhesive New Material Co., Ltd (603683.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.96 - $11.48$7.26
Multi-Stage$3.64 - $3.98$3.81
Blended Fair Value$5.53
Current Price$33.20
Upside-83.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.60%11.79%0.100.070.040.020.060.020.020.040.010.02
YoY Growth--34.91%102.33%51.31%-56.49%136.80%0.00%-38.91%240.38%-43.35%-39.20%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.78%0.39%0.29%0.56%0.37%0.25%0.29%0.14%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.828.014.81
Cash Retained (M)33.9933.9933.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.82-8.01-4.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1725.9829.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.64267.64267.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.96$7.26$11.48
Upside / Downside-85.05%-78.13%-65.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.1268.2872.7277.4582.4887.8490.48
Payout Ratio46.99%55.59%64.19%72.79%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.1337.9646.6856.3867.1479.0683.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3234.6434.97
Year 2 PV (M)38.1538.8839.61
Year 3 PV (M)41.6642.8544.07
Year 4 PV (M)44.8546.5748.35
Year 5 PV (M)47.7450.0552.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)768.80805.94844.49
Equity Value (M)975.531,018.941,063.94
Shares Outstanding (M)267.64267.64267.64
Fair Value$3.64$3.81$3.98
Upside / Downside-89.02%-88.53%-88.03%

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