Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co. Ltd. (603637.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.99 - $64.67$60.57
Multi-Stage$32.09 - $35.42$33.72
Blended Fair Value$47.14
Current Price$12.42
Upside279.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.55%0.76%0.120.120.110.130.130.160.070.080.050.11
YoY Growth--0.00%8.33%-19.98%2.86%-20.06%118.21%-2.50%42.22%-50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.56%1.25%1.42%1.75%1.64%0.60%0.68%0.29%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5511.596.96
Cash Retained (M)45.0045.0045.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.55-11.59-6.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.4633.4138.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.32267.32267.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-1.24%-0.24%0.76%
Fair Value$19.99$60.57$64.67
Upside / Downside60.91%387.64%420.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.7492.5292.2992.0791.8591.6294.37
Payout Ratio51.47%59.18%66.88%74.59%82.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.7454.7561.7368.6775.5882.4687.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-1.24%-0.24%0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)54.1354.6855.23
Year 2 PV (M)60.3461.5762.81
Year 3 PV (M)66.3768.4170.49
Year 4 PV (M)72.2275.1978.26
Year 5 PV (M)77.9181.9386.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,247.158,673.239,116.75
Equity Value (M)8,578.129,015.019,469.65
Shares Outstanding (M)267.32267.32267.32
Fair Value$32.09$33.72$35.42
Upside / Downside158.37%171.53%185.22%

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