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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Huijintong Power Equipment Co.,Ltd. (603577.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.98 - $77.47$72.60
Multi-Stage$11.42 - $12.48$11.94
Blended Fair Value$42.27
Current Price$9.28
Upside355.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.03%26.16%0.450.390.360.310.200.170.180.130.040.04
YoY Growth--13.88%10.58%13.44%55.85%21.54%-9.90%40.27%237.40%0.61%-12.01%
Dividend Yield--5.04%4.76%3.44%3.11%2.29%1.92%1.92%1.39%0.17%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)132.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.4216.519.91
Cash Retained (M)26.9226.9226.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.42-16.51-9.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.5010.4117.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.11339.11339.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.98$72.60$77.47
Upside / Downside223.01%682.32%734.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)132.10140.68149.83159.57169.94180.98186.41
Payout Ratio79.62%81.70%83.77%85.85%87.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.18114.93125.52136.99149.42162.88172.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.81107.82108.83
Year 2 PV (M)108.40110.46112.54
Year 3 PV (M)109.94113.09116.31
Year 4 PV (M)111.44115.72120.13
Year 5 PV (M)112.89118.35124.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,322.743,483.233,649.86
Equity Value (M)3,872.214,048.674,231.69
Shares Outstanding (M)339.11339.11339.11
Fair Value$11.42$11.94$12.48
Upside / Downside23.05%28.65%34.47%

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