Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhende Medical Co., Ltd. (603301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.39 - $93.62$46.19
Multi-Stage$19.26 - $21.00$20.11
Blended Fair Value$33.15
Current Price$46.66
Upside-28.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%10.25%0.591.580.612.030.290.220.080.080.080.14
YoY Growth---62.38%157.97%-69.79%594.25%34.22%177.62%-1.60%-5.61%-40.12%-37.09%
Dividend Yield--2.75%7.60%1.70%5.14%0.51%0.77%0.39%0.55%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)280.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.1835.1121.07
Cash Retained (M)89.3589.3589.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.18-35.11-21.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1754.2468.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.61%8.61%8.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.39$46.19$93.62
Upside / Downside-39.15%-1.01%100.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)280.90299.15318.60339.31361.36384.85396.40
Payout Ratio68.19%72.55%76.91%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.55217.04245.05275.78309.47346.37366.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.61%8.61%8.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.96199.84201.71
Year 2 PV (M)203.85207.73211.65
Year 3 PV (M)209.24215.24221.36
Year 4 PV (M)214.15222.38230.85
Year 5 PV (M)218.61229.17240.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,123.814,322.994,529.79
Equity Value (M)5,167.605,397.355,635.50
Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
Fair Value$19.26$20.11$21.00
Upside / Downside-58.73%-56.89%-54.99%

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