Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.,Ltd (603129.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$258.77 - $637.71$386.60
Multi-Stage$182.90 - $199.69$191.14
Blended Fair Value$288.87
Current Price$268.25
Upside7.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.06%31.26%2.061.380.810.720.340.280.260.000.020.11
YoY Growth--49.42%69.94%12.52%110.80%22.20%6.67%5,209.60%-78.39%-78.85%-20.30%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.12%0.64%0.71%0.27%0.91%1.11%0.02%0.12%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,805.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)589.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,216.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)361.16225.73135.44
Cash Retained (M)1,216.391,216.391,216.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-361.16-225.73-135.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)855.23990.671,080.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.71153.71153.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.566.457.03
LTM Dividend per Share3.833.833.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.566.457.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4010.2810.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$258.77$386.60$637.71
Upside / Downside-3.54%44.12%137.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,805.821,923.202,048.202,181.342,323.122,474.132,548.35
Payout Ratio32.64%44.11%55.58%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)589.42848.361,138.481,462.721,824.302,226.712,357.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)768.67775.95783.24
Year 2 PV (M)934.62952.42970.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,088.001,119.231,151.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,229.481,276.761,325.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,359.701,425.381,493.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,732.4123,830.4024,970.41
Equity Value (M)28,112.8829,380.1530,694.05
Shares Outstanding (M)153.71153.71153.71
Fair Value$182.90$191.14$199.69
Upside / Downside-31.82%-28.74%-25.56%

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