Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shijiazhuang Kelin Electric Co., Ltd. (603050.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.40 - $45.14$24.26
Multi-Stage$10.30 - $11.26$10.77
Blended Fair Value$17.52
Current Price$18.50
Upside-5.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.27%31.79%0.310.330.180.130.090.080.060.080.030.02
YoY Growth---3.45%83.18%36.51%44.74%11.56%30.56%-26.50%171.65%25.00%24.39%
Dividend Yield--2.08%1.99%2.18%2.33%1.83%1.63%1.02%1.12%0.62%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)246.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.2430.7818.47
Cash Retained (M)178.39178.39178.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.24-30.78-18.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.14147.61159.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.28403.28403.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.40$24.26$45.14
Upside / Downside-16.73%31.15%144.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)246.21262.22279.26297.41316.74337.33347.45
Payout Ratio27.55%40.04%52.53%65.02%77.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.83104.99146.69193.37245.51303.60321.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)95.5596.4697.36
Year 2 PV (M)121.51123.82126.16
Year 3 PV (M)145.77149.96154.22
Year 4 PV (M)168.44174.92181.58
Year 5 PV (M)189.57198.73208.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,433.453,599.293,771.47
Equity Value (M)4,154.294,343.174,539.02
Shares Outstanding (M)403.28403.28403.28
Fair Value$10.30$10.77$11.26
Upside / Downside-44.32%-41.79%-39.16%

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