Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corporation Limited (603002.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.21 - $0.30$0.25
Multi-Stage$0.37 - $0.40$0.39
Blended Fair Value$0.32
Current Price$7.70
Upside-95.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.89%9.86%0.050.150.240.210.040.050.040.010.030.02
YoY Growth---66.36%-35.68%12.78%417.41%-24.24%34.92%231.28%-56.37%64.21%-16.39%
Dividend Yield--0.87%2.67%4.09%3.61%0.61%1.27%0.90%0.23%0.43%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.684.802.88
Cash Retained (M)7.057.057.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.68-4.80-2.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.632.254.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,134.081,134.081,134.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Fair Value$0.21$0.25$0.30
Upside / Downside-97.27%-96.72%-96.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.4137.6836.9736.2735.5934.9135.96
Payout Ratio81.64%83.31%84.99%86.66%88.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.3631.3931.4231.4331.4331.4233.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)28.3428.6428.93
Year 2 PV (M)25.6126.1426.68
Year 3 PV (M)23.1323.8624.59
Year 4 PV (M)20.8921.7622.66
Year 5 PV (M)18.8519.8420.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)301.13316.96333.45
Equity Value (M)417.96437.20457.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,134.081,134.081,134.08
Fair Value$0.37$0.39$0.40
Upside / Downside-95.21%-94.99%-94.76%

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