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Definitive Analysis

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China International Capital Corporation Limited (601995.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.80 - $55.46$40.30
Multi-Stage$44.67 - $48.98$46.78
Blended Fair Value$43.54
Current Price$36.89
Upside18.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.21%0.00%0.280.190.310.190.880.140.140.140.010.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-40.00%66.67%-79.00%516.68%0.00%5.21%1,018.63%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.57%0.79%0.45%1.80%0.38%0.38%0.36%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,402.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,862.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,540.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,880.571,175.36705.22
Cash Retained (M)3,540.523,540.523,540.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,880.57-1,175.36-705.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,659.952,365.162,835.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,690.664,690.664,690.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.500.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.500.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Fair Value$29.80$40.30$55.46
Upside / Downside-19.21%9.25%50.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,402.879,630.049,862.7010,100.9810,345.0110,594.9410,912.79
Payout Ratio62.35%67.88%73.41%78.94%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,862.356,536.597,239.997,973.568,738.369,535.4510,094.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)6,056.496,116.216,175.93
Year 2 PV (M)6,215.516,338.696,463.08
Year 3 PV (M)6,342.506,531.986,725.19
Year 4 PV (M)6,440.326,698.126,963.58
Year 5 PV (M)6,511.616,839.047,179.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)177,968.62186,917.56196,222.93
Equity Value (M)209,535.06219,441.60229,730.21
Shares Outstanding (M)4,690.664,690.664,690.66
Fair Value$44.67$46.78$48.98
Upside / Downside21.09%26.82%32.76%

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