Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. (601858.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.83 - $67.46$31.28
Multi-Stage$12.17 - $13.29$12.72
Blended Fair Value$22.00
Current Price$19.54
Upside12.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.21%75.96%0.260.280.250.250.190.110.180.030.170.03
YoY Growth---6.48%9.43%-0.01%33.73%75.93%-39.35%439.58%-80.65%549.19%2,773.53%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.10%1.38%2.87%1.96%1.16%1.49%0.35%0.96%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)525.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)319.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.0865.6839.41
Cash Retained (M)319.87319.87319.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.08-65.68-39.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.79254.20280.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)790.50790.50790.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.83$31.28$67.46
Upside / Downside-3.66%60.11%245.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)525.40559.55595.92634.66675.91719.85741.44
Payout Ratio39.12%49.29%59.47%69.65%79.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.53275.83354.40442.02539.54647.86685.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.88254.27256.66
Year 2 PV (M)295.53301.16306.84
Year 3 PV (M)336.59346.26356.10
Year 4 PV (M)375.18389.61404.45
Year 5 PV (M)411.39431.26451.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,947.438,331.298,729.85
Equity Value (M)9,618.0110,053.8510,505.79
Shares Outstanding (M)790.50790.50790.50
Fair Value$12.17$12.72$13.29
Upside / Downside-37.73%-34.91%-31.99%

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