Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp., Ltd. (601827.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.64 - $148.05$138.73
Multi-Stage$40.60 - $44.57$42.55
Blended Fair Value$90.64
Current Price$8.18
Upside1,008.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.06%0.00%0.400.390.420.340.190.160.220.080.060.05
YoY Growth--2.29%-7.02%21.29%85.67%16.47%-26.61%179.43%19.39%21.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.71%5.05%5.93%4.39%2.19%1.62%2.20%0.79%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,262.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,073.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.43157.7794.66
Cash Retained (M)1,073.361,073.361,073.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.43-157.77-94.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)820.93915.59978.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate4.84%4.84%4.84%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$125.64$138.73$148.05
Upside / Downside1,435.94%1,596.00%1,709.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,262.141,332.091,405.911,483.831,566.061,652.861,702.44
Payout Ratio14.96%29.97%44.97%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.78399.17632.30890.041,174.411,487.571,574.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.84%4.84%4.84%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)377.14380.74384.35
Year 2 PV (M)564.43575.28586.23
Year 3 PV (M)750.65772.40794.57
Year 4 PV (M)935.82972.141,009.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,119.931,174.531,231.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,471.3667,614.4370,878.91
Equity Value (M)68,219.3471,489.5374,884.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
Fair Value$40.60$42.55$44.57
Upside / Downside396.32%420.11%444.81%

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