Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Americana Restaurants International PLC (6015.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.19 - $0.30$0.24
Multi-Stage$0.26 - $0.29$0.27
Blended Fair Value$0.26
Current Price$0.54
Upside-52.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.11%0.00%0.020.010.010.020.010.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--73.67%24.34%-36.00%116.55%-43.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.73%1.39%0.92%2.12%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.3522.1013.26
Cash Retained (M)49.7849.7849.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.35-22.10-13.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4327.6936.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$0.19$0.24$0.30
Upside / Downside-63.89%-54.97%-44.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.77180.39184.09187.87191.73195.66201.53
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.74%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.99136.14145.62155.44165.59176.09186.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)122.77123.99125.20
Year 2 PV (M)118.43120.78123.16
Year 3 PV (M)113.99117.41120.90
Year 4 PV (M)109.51113.91118.44
Year 5 PV (M)105.02110.32115.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,634.281,716.761,802.54
Equity Value (M)2,204.012,303.182,406.08
Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
Fair Value$0.26$0.27$0.29
Upside / Downside-51.26%-49.07%-46.79%

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