Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.,Ltd (601100.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.21 - $83.15$55.66
Multi-Stage$28.59 - $31.23$29.88
Blended Fair Value$42.77
Current Price$95.77
Upside-55.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.11%22.06%0.450.560.550.430.280.280.110.060.050.04
YoY Growth---19.50%1.10%26.75%56.75%0.11%162.14%63.59%21.87%40.05%-38.03%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.05%0.83%0.83%0.31%0.67%0.47%0.44%0.69%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,804.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)474.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,329.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)560.82350.52210.31
Cash Retained (M)2,329.272,329.272,329.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-560.82-350.52-210.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,768.441,978.752,118.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.651,341.651,341.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.21$55.66$83.15
Upside / Downside-59.06%-41.88%-13.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,804.122,986.393,180.513,387.243,607.413,841.893,957.15
Payout Ratio16.93%31.55%46.16%60.77%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)474.86942.131,468.142,058.552,719.513,457.703,660.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)848.44856.48864.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,190.671,213.351,236.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,503.481,546.641,590.62
Year 4 PV (M)1,788.711,857.501,928.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,048.092,147.022,249.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,975.8632,472.0134,025.42
Equity Value (M)38,355.2740,093.0141,894.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.651,341.651,341.65
Fair Value$28.59$29.88$31.23
Upside / Downside-70.15%-68.80%-67.39%

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