Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cofco Sugar Holding CO.,LTD. (600737.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.48 - $127.02$105.67
Multi-Stage$15.98 - $17.49$16.72
Blended Fair Value$61.19
Current Price$15.95
Upside283.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.92%40.42%0.860.500.110.080.120.130.160.120.030.03
YoY Growth--71.54%354.55%37.50%-36.00%-6.84%-17.72%30.77%271.43%16.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.93%5.04%1.36%0.94%1.31%1.47%1.79%1.62%0.30%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,366.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)478.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)887.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273.26170.79102.47
Cash Retained (M)887.76887.76887.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-273.26-170.79-102.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)614.49716.97785.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,139.222,139.222,139.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.48$105.67$127.02
Upside / Downside116.20%562.49%696.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,366.321,455.131,549.711,650.441,757.721,871.981,928.13
Payout Ratio35.03%46.02%57.02%68.01%79.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)478.56669.66883.571,122.471,388.691,684.781,783.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)619.60625.48631.35
Year 2 PV (M)756.43770.84785.38
Year 3 PV (M)889.12914.65940.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,017.781,056.921,097.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,142.501,197.681,254.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,765.6831,203.3832,696.09
Equity Value (M)34,191.1235,768.9437,405.63
Shares Outstanding (M)2,139.222,139.222,139.22
Fair Value$15.98$16.72$17.49
Upside / Downside0.21%4.83%9.63%

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