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Dashang Co., Ltd. (600694.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.83 - $9.21$8.05
Multi-Stage$23.78 - $26.35$25.04
Blended Fair Value$16.54
Current Price$17.76
Upside-6.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.59%-3.33%0.870.462.870.530.710.100.900.790.651.37
YoY Growth--89.18%-84.05%443.14%-25.36%576.18%-88.34%13.09%22.86%-52.66%12.41%
Dividend Yield--3.99%3.20%18.09%3.30%3.90%0.54%3.43%2.80%1.88%4.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)500.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)183.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.0162.5137.50
Cash Retained (M)183.91183.91183.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.01-62.51-37.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.90121.40146.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)328.30328.30328.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.370.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.370.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-9.91%-8.91%-7.91%
Fair Value$6.83$8.05$9.21
Upside / Downside-61.57%-54.68%-48.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)500.06455.52414.96378.00344.33313.67323.08
Payout Ratio63.22%68.58%73.93%79.29%84.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.15312.39306.79299.71291.46282.30298.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-9.91%-8.91%-7.91%
Year 1 PV (M)290.98294.21297.44
Year 2 PV (M)266.18272.12278.13
Year 3 PV (M)242.22250.37258.71
Year 4 PV (M)219.40229.31239.55
Year 5 PV (M)197.95209.18220.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,591.206,965.207,356.00
Equity Value (M)7,807.938,220.408,650.74
Shares Outstanding (M)328.30328.30328.30
Fair Value$23.78$25.04$26.35
Upside / Downside33.91%40.99%48.37%

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