Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wolong Electric Group Co.,Ltd. (600580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.42 - $9.86$8.02
Multi-Stage$8.38 - $9.17$8.77
Blended Fair Value$8.39
Current Price$48.42
Upside-82.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.37%2.99%0.270.310.330.320.340.300.270.220.220.05
YoY Growth---15.61%-3.76%3.09%-6.95%13.84%8.87%26.59%0.42%361.96%-76.33%
Dividend Yield--1.20%2.31%3.11%2.90%3.76%3.48%3.42%2.97%3.09%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)973.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)605.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.64121.6572.99
Cash Retained (M)605.97605.97605.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.64-121.65-72.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)411.34484.33532.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,423.291,423.291,423.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Fair Value$6.42$8.02$9.86
Upside / Downside-86.75%-83.44%-79.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)973.19992.521,012.231,032.331,052.831,073.741,105.95
Payout Ratio37.73%48.19%58.64%69.09%79.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.22478.26593.57713.27837.49966.361,023.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Year 1 PV (M)432.12436.39440.67
Year 2 PV (M)484.55494.20503.93
Year 3 PV (M)526.08541.87557.97
Year 4 PV (M)558.10580.54603.65
Year 5 PV (M)581.85611.23641.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,340.999,812.7310,303.34
Equity Value (M)11,923.6912,476.9613,051.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,423.291,423.291,423.29
Fair Value$8.38$8.77$9.17
Upside / Downside-82.70%-81.90%-81.06%

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