Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co., Ltd. (600452.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.72 - $50.64$47.46
Multi-Stage$7.29 - $7.98$7.63
Blended Fair Value$27.54
Current Price$9.31
Upside195.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.11%65.17%0.150.110.090.060.080.070.020.020.040.02
YoY Growth--39.37%28.71%36.19%-19.50%16.85%220.87%25.00%-54.29%75.00%1,949.31%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.15%0.75%0.90%1.16%1.60%0.44%0.36%0.59%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)390.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)228.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.0448.7729.26
Cash Retained (M)228.85228.85228.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.04-48.77-29.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.81180.08199.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,532.411,532.411,532.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.72$47.46$50.64
Upside / Downside111.84%409.72%443.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)390.19415.55442.56471.33501.96534.59550.63
Payout Ratio41.35%51.08%60.81%70.54%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.34212.26269.12332.47402.92481.13509.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.27199.14201.01
Year 2 PV (M)232.44236.87241.34
Year 3 PV (M)266.88274.54282.35
Year 4 PV (M)300.59312.15324.04
Year 5 PV (M)333.58349.69366.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,837.5410,312.6910,806.04
Equity Value (M)11,168.3011,685.0812,221.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,532.411,532.411,532.41
Fair Value$7.29$7.63$7.98
Upside / Downside-21.72%-18.10%-14.34%

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